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1 hour ago, Naazon said:

The real scam is going to uni. 

Depends on a lot of factors - including the person's drive and capability. Both the worker and the student can do worse, but they can also do better.

I've spitballed this with google, but gone with fairly reliable sources like Fair Work, ATO websites, and some recruitment websites discussing graduate salaries etc. I've made a couple of assumptions, and erred on the conservative side when it came to indexation. 

Uni Graduate

Assumes a four year full time degree with no supplemental employment, working on the average degree cost per year from Canstar Blue. I'm aware that I haven't factored in any centrelink payments as the whole thing gets messy offering up options for whether the student lives with parents or away from home, whether their parents earn too much money ($60k is the lower level for income reduction) so obviously the 'rolling earnings' is the worst possible figure possible.

I used real indexation rates for the last 4 years, but the average of 4% per year wasn't historically accurate so I estimated a 2% ongoing indexation. Earnings for graduates varied according to Talent.com, but seemed to indicate a 10% growth per year with experience and promotion.

Retail worker

Assumes an 18 year old fresh out of high school with no prior employment experience - entry rate as a Junior Retail Assistant level 1, increasing with age to 21, and increasing retail level to maximum pay rate at level 8. I topped them out at the max retail pay rate and assumed they stayed in that job from that point. Naturally the award wage would increase with enterprise bargaining but there's already too many assumptions so i've left it as is.

TL:DR

  • Average four year uni degree can cost $131k before indexation
  • In the same four years your retail worker has earned $183k
  • Graduate starting salaries mean HECS\HELP repayments begin immediately upon entering the workforce
  • It takes 13 years out of high school before the Uni Graduate has cumulatively earned more than the retail worker
  • At that time, the graduate has paid $52k in repayments, but has only paid off $30k of the principal, due to indexation.
  • There's still 80% of their HECS\HELP debt remaining - which could take 10 or more years to pay off
  • You could absolutely do better than this. But you could also do far worse.
  • Everyone's mileage may vary and end of the day the figures below don't mean shit in the real world - just a fun little spreadsheet exercise to get the mind moving on a monday morning.

image.thumb.png.cd9e173a28b7b227922391a8c4a04d4c.png

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28 minutes ago, DaptoFunlandGuy said:

Depends on a lot of factors - including the person's drive and capability. Both the worker and the student can do worse, but they can also do better.

I've spitballed this with google, but gone with fairly reliable sources like Fair Work, ATO websites, and some recruitment websites discussing graduate salaries etc. I've made a couple of assumptions, and erred on the conservative side when it came to indexation. 

Uni Graduate

Assumes a four year full time degree with no supplemental employment, working on the average degree cost per year from Canstar Blue. I'm aware that I haven't factored in any centrelink payments as the whole thing gets messy offering up options for whether the student lives with parents or away from home, whether their parents earn too much money ($60k is the lower level for income reduction) so obviously the 'rolling earnings' is the worst possible figure possible.

I used real indexation rates for the last 4 years, but the average of 4% per year wasn't historically accurate so I estimated a 2% ongoing indexation. Earnings for graduates varied according to Talent.com, but seemed to indicate a 10% growth per year with experience and promotion.

Retail worker

Assumes an 18 year old fresh out of high school with no prior employment experience - entry rate as a Junior Retail Assistant level 1, increasing with age to 21, and increasing retail level to maximum pay rate at level 8. I topped them out at the max retail pay rate and assumed they stayed in that job from that point. Naturally the award wage would increase with enterprise bargaining but there's already too many assumptions so i've left it as is.

TL:DR

  • Average four year uni degree can cost $131k before indexation
  • In the same four years your retail worker has earned $183k
  • Graduate starting salaries mean HECS\HELP repayments begin immediately upon entering the workforce
  • It takes 13 years out of high school before the Uni Graduate has cumulatively earned more than the retail worker
  • At that time, the graduate has paid $52k in repayments, but has only paid off $30k of the principal, due to indexation.
  • There's still 80% of their HECS\HELP debt remaining - which could take 10 or more years to pay off
  • You could absolutely do better than this. But you could also do far worse.
  • Everyone's mileage may vary and end of the day the figures below don't mean shit in the real world - just a fun little spreadsheet exercise to get the mind moving on a monday morning.

image.thumb.png.cd9e173a28b7b227922391a8c4a04d4c.png

My only note is you left out Super, which is unironically, super important as it is exponential and the earlier you start, generally speaking the better off. Clearly a higher wage would boost that but my early years of slogging it out in crappy retail before I actually tried professionally and started climbing corporate ladders really shows in my Super when compared to released market statistics.

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43 minutes ago, Naazon said:

My only note is you left out Super, which is unironically, super important as it is exponential and the earlier you start, generally speaking the better off. Clearly a higher wage would boost that but my early years of slogging it out in crappy retail before I actually tried professionally and started climbing corporate ladders really shows in my Super when compared to released market statistics.

Yeah you're not wrong, though the generally does a lot of heavy lifting. There's a lot of assumptions in the scenario, and the retail worker could just as easily take that experience into salaried employment making far more than what is shown here. But for the sake of completeness for those who won't crunch the numbers themselves (and thankfully I didn't ditch the spreadsheet just yet!) Other assumptions I didn't factor include penalty rates and overtime, so the retail guy can absolutely pull further ahead. Chances are the graduate is putting in more than a 38 hour work week for no additional remuneration in some fields too - swings and roundabouts really. 

Assuming 12% super, and a simple 10% earnings rate on your super (Super Guarantee legislation calculates earnings on unpaid super at a simple 10% rate and I don't really care to look at long term industry earnings rates to be bothered using any other rates - the point is they've both got the same rate, so apples with apples as they say).

By the end of the 13 years in the previous example, the retail worker is still ahead on super. Given the rapidly increasing salary of the graduate, it won't take long for the graduate to overtake, but again for the critics - this is a simplistic example - with 6-8 years experience the graduate is potentially climbing the ladder too.

The graduate is still 6-7 grand behind the retail pleb, plus they still owe $113k in HECS to boot. If I keep everything the same from that point on - (let's say the graduate has topped out on salary at age 30) then it takes until they're nearly 42 years old before the HECS is paid off. By that time they've got an extra $180k in super.

Short of things like covid stimulus, most people won't be able to touch their super for another few decades though, so Super is definitely the long game, but the short term sacrifice in super earnings does pay off - IF you succeed in your chosen field of study.

 

image.thumb.png.1a352c63dc58367737192ca5540cba67.png

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20 hours ago, themagician said:

Honestly, that’s pretty good. Some people go to uni for 5+ years and are on less (for the first few years of their career)

My wife starts her grad year as an RN in February she starts on 79k a year + super etc, for only a 3 year course. 

 

Stay away from liberal art courses then.

Edited by Ashley Jeffery
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A big thing to also note is University workers can and many do work full time while studying. I have worked full time during my entire degree in hospitality and in my final year I am now working a job in my field of study, In addition to working full time in Hospitality. Which means I am paying my student loans down while studying as well and have built super. 

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1 hour ago, Tim Dasco said:

A big thing to also note is University workers can and many do work full time while studying. I have worked full time during my entire degree in hospitality and in my final year I am now working a job in my field of study, In addition to working full time in Hospitality. Which means I am paying my student loans down while studying as well and have built super. 

There are of course going to be outliers in any sort of analysis. Most students do some sort of work that fits around studies, and many who don't work are still eligible for Youth Allowance. Foreign students are (legally) limited to 20 hours per week, many others work casual or part time, weekends and night trading and some classes keep unusual hours. We could go on for months and never cover everyone's exact specific circumstances. So it's not a big thing to note, but it is a note worth pointing out for anyone reading.

Wait... I did.

3 hours ago, DaptoFunlandGuy said:
  • Both the worker and the student can do worse, but they can also do better.
  • Assumes a four year full time degree with no supplemental employment
  • You could absolutely do better than this. But you could also do far worse.
  • Everyone's mileage may vary and end of the day the figures below don't mean shit in the real world

Likewise the retail worker can also do better than shown too, but again kept the examples fairly simple for a base level comparison. Sorry I should have mentioned that.

1 hour ago, DaptoFunlandGuy said:
  • The retail worker could just as easily take that experience into salaried employment making far more than what is shown here.
  • I didn't factor include penalty rates and overtime, so the retail guy can absolutely pull further ahead.
  • swings and roundabouts really. 
  • again for the critics - this is a simplistic example

Oh yeah I did.

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