Theme Parks:future

[TOT]

Given the current economic downturn, in your opinion do you think the GC theme parks will cut their spending and we will, as a result get a much more ordinary product for our money? Do you think attendance figures will take a large or small dip? It'll be an interesting twelve months, not with theme parks but with the economy in general.

[joz]

I think we can look forward to a cut in spending, at least until the situation becomes more clear. I think this year will be pretty healthy despite the economy, and I'd expect to see a lift in attendance on last year, particularly for the Village parks, with all having some pretty cool new toys to market, and I think the Gold Coast may end up a cheaper alternative for people with overseas being out of the question with the recent slide in the Aussie dollar, which at the time of writing is worth US64c. (Just on Village and the AU$, bet they're happy they bought the US water parks when the exchange rate was so favorable, since now our dollar is down the crapper they'll be getting a much better return) I'll put it all on the line and give my prediction for the year ahead (pulled out of the backside in case you're wondering):* MW: Slight lift in attendance (between 1 and 4%) driven in part by the new show and a slow year last year SW: A 4-8% lift in attendance lift in attendance, due to new attractions being released WnW: Big increase this year. Of the established parks on the Coast, its the cheapest to visit, and with the weather being so bad last year, I can imagine there being many people who haven't been for a couple of years now. 4-8%+ increase. DW: Moderate decrease in attendance of around 2%. Tough competition, coupled with lack of new attractions, offset by an unexplained 8% jump in spending. WWW: They still haven't hit their stride yet, and as people become more aware of the place, attendance will continue to improve. * Guesses assume weather is improved on last year and economic conditions don't get *much* worse. For entertainment purposes only, no responsibility taken.

Edited October 13, 2008 by joz

[sonic123488]

WWW: They still haven't hit their stride yet, and as people become more aware of the place, attendance will continue to improve.

Now I think you're right about every other park, but how long has it been since you went to WWW? It's totally packed, I went on the last holidays, every ride, but foe nickelodeon was at least a ten minute wait. On the super tubes it was 45minutes. They're taking as many guests as their park can handle at the moment. So they are at the top of their stride.

[joz]

^ What I'm getting at that last year their attendance was up, which I'd put down to more awareness of the place. This year, I'd expect more of the same, a huge increase in attendance on last year, riding off that better awareness, which anecdotely from yourself, could well be the case.

[Richard]

How the current global economic conditions affects our parks remains to be seen. What has caused this has not happened in Australia, where banks haven't pursued sub-prime loans like in the US, partly through responsible government regulation, and also because of our strong resources sector. I'm not convinced average Australians will feel the crunch of this current situation. Banks will, as will companies because of the global nature of finances and the economy, but I don't think the average homeowner in Australia will. Interest rates will have a much greater impact on attendance as this by and large controls disposible income. In short there are still a lot of people out there who can ably afford to visit theme parks. If our parks are negatively impacted anytime soon I'd put the shortcomings down to marketing and failing to live up to the market's expectations rather than a change in consumer sentiment. I'd tend to agree with joz's expectations. Though I don't think Dreamworld's per capita spending will increase quite that much as I believe their management have come to a dead-end with that method of internal growth. As far as the dollar goes, I reckon Village are very happy with their aquisitions. I'd imagine the decision to do that was based on our dollar's performance and we should see a slow down on their international expansion for the time being. Expect the dollar to level off at about $0.75 or possibly higher; the current abysmal value is the market overreacting. It's made me pretty antsy given I rely on US imports so the next few weeks/months will be interesting, especially after having an awesome period there where it was up at $0.98.

[TOT]

True, The sub prime mortgage crisis in the US might not affect Australian consumers as such, I'm just worried that because of the terrible exchange rate, the theme parks will be hesitant to add new attractions from overseas as they just aren't as attractive pricewise anymore. Let's hope I'm proved wrong

[joz]

Well the results are in and I think got the overall trends right (except SW, I still blame marketing for over selling HWSD and underselling JR. Not their fault when half the marketing staff were sacked just before Xmas though)...

MW: Slight lift in attendance (between 1 and 4%) driven in part by the new show and a slow year last year

Movieworld's attendance was up 5.9%

SW: A 4-8% lift in attendance lift in attendance, due to new attractions being released

Seaworld's attendance declined by 2%

WnW: Big increase this year. Of the established parks on the Coast, its the cheapest to visit, and with the weather being so bad last year, I can imagine there being many people who haven't been for a couple of years now. 4-8%+ increase.

Wet 'n' Wild's attendance was up 11.6%

DW: Moderate decrease in attendance of around 2%. Tough competition, coupled with lack of new attractions, offset by an unexplained 8% jump in spending.

Dreamworld's attendance dropped 5% For what it's worth the parks per cap spending remained pretty much flat despite the introduction of Q4U and a new upcharge attraction.

WWW: They still haven't hit their stride yet, and as people become more aware of the place, attendance will continue to improve.

White Water World's attendance was up by 15% Edited October 26, 2009 by joz

[GoGoBoy]

I've got to say I am very disappointed with the slight Sea World attendance decline considering they had a new ride added in the year. If the Aussie public does not support new attractions then we simply won't get as many. If a new show draws a larger attendance than a ride the parks will just add entertainment based additions instead (and become like... shudder... Wonderland) as it's much cheaper. Let's hope this is not the case. I think a part of this result is definitely due to the appalling lack of marketing for Jet Rescue, as Joz mentioned

Edited October 27, 2009 by GoGoBoy

[Richard]

When you look at it, they spent as much on Hollywood Stunt Driver as they would on a major attraction. The difference between it and Jet Rescue comes largely down to its complete lack of significant marketing, whereas the stunt show was given a huge advertising campaign that still seems to be floating around today on TV and other places. I wouldn't put all of it down to lackluster marketing though. The impression I get is that Sea World has a certain stigma attached to it, particularly with the youth market, so it was always going to be an uphill battle because the families already go for the animal attractions and I don't think a whole lot of them would be swayed by a new roller coaster when they could just as easily visit Dreamworld or Movie World for that kind of stuff. Hate to say it, but a roller coaster (however mild) after a decade or more of essentially nothing but animal attractions probably wasn't the best move. However now that they've gone that way once, I think it'd be quite a poor decision to revert to animal attractions... there's definitely room to build some momentum off of Jet Rescue with a few followup rides to give the park a more balanced image. I hope they don't go the way of that water coaster, because it just looks like a waste of space with little payoff... Mack water coasters are pretty ordinary. But something wet should definitely be on the cards. It's been a decade since we saw any new water ride at any park, and last I checked summers are still hot.

[Gazza]

I think the water coaster proposed was lacklustre....Essentially all it did was have a lift, a helix drop and a splashdown. Personally, I'd do something where it starts off as a dark boat ride, before being lifted up vertically to the high point (Similar to this ride http://www.rcdb.com/3029.htm?p=15413 ) , emerging from the darkness and then doing the coastery stuff over the roof of the dark ride section. At least that way it gets fleshed out into a proper experience, rather than just a shoot the chutes with a curving drop, and it becomes less of a waste of space since the ground area is actually being used for something. For the record, I do think a water coaster can be a decent ride, (I think the issue with JTA at SWO is that the only time bothers to do some coastery stuff is for a few seconds right at the end)