Dreamworld reopening - the summer season

[elemist]

Just noticed Dreamworld trending on Facebook again with most of the news agencies releasing articles today about how quiet Dream World is. 

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/dreamworld-a-virtual-ghost-town-two-months-after-death-of-four-patrons/news-story/43dc56d8bddd80634618f251c1273c53

It's not really surprising given most of the thrill rides are still closed - yet ticket prices have only dropped a little. Without going all "POP"/Doom and gloom, I do wonder at what point the park becomes unviable? They took a big hit being closed for so long, and then visitor numbers are well down over what's generally their busiest time of year. 

End of next week most people will be back to work - so out of state numbers will start to drop. In 2 - 3 weeks it will be end of school holidays and everyone will be back to school. 

It's almost to the point where i wonder if the rides being closed is causing more harm than good. IE rather than reinforcing their commitment to safety, it starts prompting questions about why it's taking so long. I mean these are rides that up until the accident occurred were supposedly 100% safe and completely operational. 

Personally i can understand that there's obviously limited people experienced enough to carry out these audits, and thus things can only move so fast. I would assume most of these people would have been on leave for Xmas/New Year the past week or so as well. Physical tests etc all take time and are dependent on equipment availability and the likes. However the people at home aren't going to look at it like that..

[themagician]

It is a shame they haven't been able to get them all open, and I'm sure DW would've wanted them to be too. But safety is number 1, and if they aren't satisfied with the ride then they won't open it until they are. I'm sure they would all be ready to go and operating for the waster holidays, and by then LEGO will be open too. So that will hopefully be a better period for them. 

[webslave]

I personally chalk it up to the rides not being open.  I wouldn't buy a ticket to visit at the moment solely on that basis, and I have to imagine others are in the same boat.

[mba2012]

Alton Towers was still reporting visitor numbers being down over a year after their accident. It was never going to be a quick recovery. Hopefully once all rides are open it'll start recovering a bit more. But they'd be stupid to use visitor numbers from any point during the next year or so to warrant a reconsideration regarding the parks future. 

[SunshineTom]

Hehe but POP was wrong right? Lol

[bladex]

Referring to one's self in the third person

[SunshineTom]

Anyway...back on topic. I've done a projection that they are currently losing 3 million a month. Add that to the 10 million they lost in the 6 weeks they were closed and you have a theme park in serious trouble. Could be bust and closed within 18 months. 

[mission]

2 minutes ago, SunshineTom said:

I've done a projection that they are currently losing 3 million a month. Add that to the 10 million they lost in the 6 weeks they were closed and you have a theme park in serious trouble. Could be bust and closed within 18 months. 

What financial facts do you base this on?

[themagician]

They lost 7 million, not 10 million

[SunshineTom]

Just now, themagician said:

They lost 7 million, not 10 million

Incorrect

5 minutes ago, mission said:

What financial facts do you base this on?

I said a projection which I've independently researched. Park is down almost two thirds in attendance. Monthly revenue last financial year was $9 million and $3 million in net profit. Divide that by 3 and you currently have $3 million in revenue and a $3 million loss.

[mission]

Usually a decrease in revenue will also result in a decrease in expenses (such as reduced employee costs), so a $3m profit won't be a $3m loss if revenue reduces by $6m.

 

Anyway, unless detailed financials are known, this is all purely speculation and pretty meaningless,

 

[SunshineTom]

6 minutes ago, mission said:

Usually a decrease in revenue will also result in a decrease in expenses (such as reduced employee costs), so a $3m profit won't be a $3m loss if revenue reduces by $6m.

 

Anyway, unless detailed financials are known, this is all purely speculation and pretty meaningless,

 

Actually DWs expenses are only likely to increase. Know anything about insurance?

[elemist]

17 minutes ago, SunshineTom said:

Incorrect

I said a projection which I've independently researched. Park is down almost two thirds in attendance. Monthly revenue last financial year was $9 million and $3 million in net profit. Divide that by 3 and you currently have $3 million in revenue and a $3 million loss.

So your independent research involved looking at the last financial years results.. hmm seams pretty definitive then.

Without the exact figures and information which would be confidential to Dream World until released in their results, there's no way to know exactly what the damage is.

Just because gross revenue is down, it doesn't automatically result in gross profit dropping. Whilst not exactly 1:1 - the fact half the park is not operating would be reducing overheads considerably.

I would also hope they had some form of business continuity insurance in place that will pay out and cover things like staffing costs and a contribution towards the lack of sales.

I expect things like insurance increases etc would not yet have been incurred. To my knowledge there's been no formal outcome from the investigation released. Which means there's no at fault determination that can be used.

1 hour ago, SunshineTom said:

Hehe but POP was wrong right? Lol

Well.. yes.. 

[Santa07]

59 minutes ago, SunshineTom said:

I said a projection which I've independently researched. Park is down almost two thirds in attendance. Monthly revenue last financial year was $9 million and $3 million in net profit. Divide that by 3 and you currently have $3 million in revenue and a $3 million loss.

Your maths is correct, but your common sense is missing. Do you not realise that monthly revenue means average monthly revenue. Which means monthly revenue in peak season will be above this figure and monthly revenue in off-peak season will be below. Park has only been in peak season for about a week, since what you have calculated has been based off most of the off-season period your calculations are completely invalid (and additionally, I have no clue where you got the 2/3 attendance figure from).

 

Edited January 3, 2017 by Santa07

[elemist]

1 minute ago, Santa07 said:

@themagician's figure would be a lot closer (if not exact - I'm not sure where he got it from but I doubt he would be making it up off an estimation)

The 7 million dollar figure comes from most of the news reports which i believe is just the initial $300k per day loss x the length of the closure and then rounded to make it a nice number for reporting.

No idea how that 300k figure was calculated or how accurate it is.

[MaxxTheMonster]

32 minutes ago, SunshineTom said:

Actually DWs expenses are only likely to increase. Know anything about insurance?

Working for an insurance company yes...  yes I do...

You will find that something like this will have some affect on their premiums but given their track history not anywhere as much as you would think...  This will however also affect the insurance premiums for other outlets that are required to have the same sort of insurance as it is a guarantee that the re-insurers are needing to get back the money they have had to pay out since the event for any claims made by the park...  So if VRTP has the same re-insurers you will find that all the extra attendance at their parks could be helping pay them back for a claim made by DW...  Once they make back their money these premiums will drop once again until another event occurs (hopefully not for a long time)...

We are seeing a small increase on all insurance premiums at the moment as a direct result of re-insurers having to pay out on multiple events within the Australasian zones that although having zero direct link to these they have the same re-insurers and they are trying to get back the amounts they paid out on other claims...

[XxMrYoshixX]

Seems like this "news" article must have been written by either @POP or @SunshineTom.

Dreamworld will recover. It just won't happen now as most of the thrill rides that Ardent plan to reopen haven't even re-opened yet. 

http://www.cairnspost.com.au/news/cairns/dreamworld-a-virtual-ghost-town-two-months-after-death-of-four-patrons/news-story/5b6377cf8db75ee98602e6b007081f7f

Edited January 3, 2017 by XxMrYoshixX

[wipeout94]

I was at Dreamworld yesterday and can report the park had a great attendance.

I arrived at 530pm. For those who like carpark reports it was 85% full with people still arriving. You didn't have to go far to find a crowds of people on rides and at the entertainment performances.

I saw the beatbox show twice last year and noticed the crowd was larger for the fire machine show last night. Dreamworld do seem to be putting guests first as they moved the fire machine show starting time to 7pm so guests could experience it before the rain started.

I am not concerned about the newspaper report. Dreamworld has only been open for a couple of weeks so of course their attendance is down. Also holiday makers have just started to arrive on the Gold Coast after Christmas. it is not just the parks but the whole of the Gold Coast that has been quiet, just like every other year up till now. 

So while the trolls are stuck in doors righting their negative views, I will continue visiting the parks I enjoy and support.

 

[Slick]

4 hours ago, SunshineTom said:

Actually DWs expenses are only likely to increase. Know anything about insurance?

I know lots.

But fear mongering gets us no where. Contrary to popular belief, the park's actually been doing solid numbers. Not peak season numbers, nor did anyone nor should anyone expect those kinds of numbers, particularly when over half of the major thrill rides are closed. However, the last time I went, this is what the park looked like...

But you're right, doom & gloom sell much more adspace then positive happy stories do.

[Theme Park Girl]

Kudos to @Slick and Ourworlds for this amazing article. Telling it actually like it is, without the fake media spin... 

http://ourworlds.co/no-dreamworlds-not-really-ghost-town/

[rappa]

But but but Sunshine Pop did research so clearly is was the one who was right 

lol yeah sure 

[Tim Dasco]

@SunshineTom you should read @Slick's/ourworlds article. http://ourworlds.co/no-dreamworlds-not-really-ghost-town/

[SunshineTom]

44 minutes ago, Tim Dasco said:

@SunshineTom you should read @Slick's/ourworlds article. http://ourworlds.co/no-dreamworlds-not-really-ghost-town/

A lovely piece of propaganda. 

[rappa]

What is actually wrong with you mate? Like do you need meds? Should you possibly spend some time in a special facility with soft walls? 

Youre not even a good troll, because a troll gets people to fire up and cause arguments. You are just at the point where everyone just dismisses anything you even say. We really care less, you're just a sad sad person. 

Literally no one here cares about you whatsoever. 

[MickeyD]

@POP I fail to understand how you get your jollys out of dissing an iconic and much loved Aussie brand purely for the sake of getting attention through contempt and utter distain from everyone other than your own alter egos!

By continuing to only contribute mindless negativity you are showing everyone what a complete and utter unit you are, over and over again!!

C'mon mate it's a new year so how's about turning that frown upside down and say something positive for once?